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Minbos Resources (MNB) is a pre-production phosphate developer operating in Angola. Its core asset is the Cabinda Phosphate Project, designed to produce phosphate fertiliser primarily for the domestic Angolan market and nearby regions. The investment case is based on import substitution, government support, and relatively simple mining and processing. The company completed a DFS in 2022/23 which showed a pre-tax NPV of roughly US$200m under base case assumptions. Capex was moderate by mining standards and projected EBITDA was strong once steady state production is reached. On paper, the project economics are attractive. Current situation as of early 2026: Share price around 2.6 to 2.7 cents Market cap roughly A$25–30m Shares on issue around 1bn and likely to increase The market cap is a small fraction of the DFS NPV, but this is not unusual for junior developers that are not yet in production. Funding and dilution are the main issues. Minbos has relied heavily on equity raisings at low prices, including recent placements and an SPP at around current market prices. ASX approval allows significant expansion of the share count, potentially up to ~30% from recent funding alone. There are also options on issue that may convert later. Because of this, the original DFS per-share value is no longer valid without adjustment. Any valuation must assume a higher fully diluted share count and accept that further dilution is possible if timelines slip or costs increase. Why the market is cautious: No revenue yet Construction and commissioning risk Operating in Angola Ongoing equity overhang Time risk before cash flow The market is pricing MNB as a funding and execution risk, not as a producer. How to think about valuation: Pre-production mining companies typically trade at 10–30% of project NPV before first cash flow, depending on confidence and funding certainty. MNB currently trades at the very low end of this range. Base case assumptions for a realistic re-rate: Project construction completed Funding fully locked First fertiliser production achieved No major cost blowouts If those conditions are met, the market would likely start valuing MNB closer to a producer multiple rather than a speculative developer. Price target ranges (very approximate, assuming current dilution levels): Bear case (more dilution, delays): 1.5 to 2.0 cents Base case (successful commissioning, early production): 5 to 7 cents Bull case (smooth execution, strong phosphate pricing, sentiment shift): 8 to 10 cents The base case implies roughly a 2x–3x from current levels, which aligns with a move toward the lower end of typical pre-producer NPV discounting. The bull case would require strong execution and market confidence, not just the DFS existing on paper. Bottom line: MNB is not a DFS-only story anymore. It is an execution story. The upside exists, but it is capped and delayed by dilution. Anyone buying here is betting that construction finishes, production starts, and the company stops needing cheap equity.